A Technical Recession

Stocks have been hammered since the beginning of 2022 with increasing inflation that doesn’t seem to stop. Even after two 50-point base rate hikes, inflation spiked and currently sits at 8.6% up from 8.3% which is the most since 1981. This is very confusing because you have a jobs report that added 390,000 jobs in May with unemployment at 3.6%.

Crypto assets are in free-fall dropping faster than they rose in 2021. Bitcoin crashing through $24,000 on the way to the ground floor while Ethereum sits at just over $1,200. Bitcoin  BTCUSD, -14.25%  has slumped around 14% over the past 24 hours, last trading at levels not seen since late 2020 of around $23,517 with a low in that period of $23,822. Those represent levels not seen since late 2020. Bitcoin is down more than 60% from its November 2021 high. Ethereum ETHUSD, -17.07% fell more than 16% to around $1,235, hovering at a early 2021 low, after touching $1,180. Meme coin Dogecoin DOGEUSD, -16.61% lost 17%. Also not helping sentiment were hints of industry panic. Crypto lending platform Celsius announced it was pausing all withdrawals and transfers amid “extreme market conditions,” as its CEL digital token plunged 50%. And shares of technology services group MicroStrategy MSTR, -21.32% slumped on worries a margin call may force it to sell bitcoins.

If the S&P 500 drops below 3,837 it would confirm a bear market. A close below 3,837.25 would mark a 20% pullback from the S&P 500’s Jan. 3 record finish, meeting the traditional definition of a bear market, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 SPX, -3.14% was down 3.3% at 3,772 in recent action. To be sure, many investors and analysts see a 20% pullback as an overly formal if not outdated metric, arguing that stocks have long been behaving in bearlike fashion. And note, that if the S&P 500 were to close below the threshold, the start of the bear market would be backdated to the Jan. 3 peak. A bear market is declared over once the S&P 500 has risen 20% from a low.



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