Starbucks’ long-running labor fight is heading for a flashpoint. Starbucks Workers United says baristas will walk out starting Thursday, November 13—Red Cup Day—unless a first contract is finalized. The union’s strike authorization reportedly passed by an overwhelming margin and is slated to hit at least 25 cities, timing the action for one of the chain’s busiest promotional days of the year. Starbucks counters that it already offers competitive pay and benefits and wants the union back at the bargaining table.
At the core of the standoff are three demands the union has put in writing: more and steadier hours to address what workers describe as persistent understaffing and to help more baristas qualify for benefits; higher take-home pay beyond recent proposals; and a framework to resolve hundreds of outstanding unfair-labor-practice allegations tied to the organizing drive. The union says there are 33 tentative agreements on narrower items, but that talks broke down earlier this year and progress since mediation has been minimal. Starbucks disputes the union’s characterization, pointing to an average compensation figure it says approaches $30 an hour when benefits are included.
How likely is the strike? On balance, fairly likely unless there’s an abrupt thaw. The union has already named the date, publicized the plan, and says support among members is strong. Newsrooms from AP to Reuters are treating the action as imminent, and last-minute bargaining movement hasn’t been evident in public statements. That said, only a slice of U.S. Starbucks cafés are unionized—roughly 550 company-owned stores out of about 10,000—so the footprint of any walkout would be meaningful for headlines and specific locations, but not system-wide. In previous Red Cup protests, many stores still opened, sometimes with limited staffing. Expect disruption and long lines in targeted markets, not a national shutdown.
Investors have been uneasy with Starbucks for months, and it isn’t just labor risk. Shares sit well below their 52-week high after a year of uneven results, cautious commentary from management, and debate over the turnaround plan and China exposure. The stock has slogged through a soft patch this fall, with choppy sessions around earnings and lingering underperformance versus the broader market.
